Croatia vs Spain prediction, preview and stats, 6 Oct 2026
Croatia host Spain in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, 6 October 2026. Our model expects 1.3 goals from Croatia and 1.8 from Spain, with Croatia winning 27% of the time, a draw 24% and Spain 49%.
Match details
Croatia vs Spain is a UEFA Nations League fixture played on Tuesday, 6 October 2026, with kick-off at 20:45 UTC.
Form guide
Croatia's last 8 results, most recent first: L L W L W W L W.
Spain's last 8 results, most recent first: W W W W W W W W.
Croatia have averaged 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded at home over their last 6 games there.
Spain have averaged 2.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded away from home over their last 6 games there.
Croatia vs Spain head-to-head
29 Sept 2026: Spain 4-1 Croatia
What the numbers say
Win probability: Croatia 27%, draw 24%, Spain 49%.
Goals: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.
The single most likely score is Croatia 1-1 Spain.
Sportinstinct prediction
Double Chance: Spain or draw at odds of 1.26 (67% confidence).
Croatia have taken 12 points from their last 8, while Spain are unbeaten in their last 8. Croatia average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded at home, while Spain average 2.3 scored and 0.5 conceded away from home. When they last met, Croatia lost 1-4 against Spain. Our model expects Croatia to score about 1.3 and Spain about 1.8. Spain should at least avoid defeat.
Our picks are built from the data and reviewed, but they are analysis, never a guarantee. Sportinstinct is not a betting site and does not encourage betting.